Russia Ukraine war and it's impacts to India

India-impacts to Russia Ukraine war

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Impacts to India Economic Impact: Short term impacts include oil prices going up and countries essential goods will be costlier. India imports 85% of its petroleum from Russia and Arab countries like Iran, Saudi Arabia etc. If the war continues India is likely to face shortage of essential goods and shortage of petrol. It may forces us to look elsewhere for energy. in addition, india's metal export and manufacturing is looking ahead for a slow down. In long term India could be forced to accelerates its adoption of electric cars and solar energy to supplement petroleum just like adoption of digital education during pandemic.

Conclusion The world is now looking at India to see how we react. We did well in the humanitarian corridor but the current ask is complex. India has three options. One is gain short term by siding with Russia but loose long term when the entire world goes against Russia as they continue to pummel Ukraine. Other is to slowly shift towards USA and EU. But this will damage the India Russia relationship completely. Another option is wait and watch and continue ceasefire talks. India is partly doing this at present.

“Russia treacherously attacked our state in the morning, as Nazi Germany did in #2WW years." Zelensky

“Russia alone is responsible for the death and destruction this attack will bring, and the United States and its Allies and partners will respond in a united and decisive way. The world will hold Russia accountable.”&nbsp; Biden

"The Ukrainian leadership is ‘hiding behind people so that it can blame Russia for civilian casualties." Putin

Impacts of Russia Ukraine war The Russia Ukraine war has short term, medium term and long term impacts for world as a whole and especially India. The more the war prolongs, the more the impacts will be. The impacts are at different levels - Economic impacts, Political impacts and military impacts.

Military Impacts India had border disputes in the past with China and they acquired military weapons to ward off China.80% of the India's weapons were imported from Russia and erstwhile Soviet Union. India want the weapons but are unable to support Russia completely in the current conflict. India also has the pressure from Ukraine and NATO allies to get a ceasefire done from Russia.

Chalkboard

Impacts of Russia-Ukraine War: What is in store for India?

Political Impacts India has maintained a good relationship with Russia, Ukraine, USA and the European Union(Britain, France, Germany). India had to put that to use to get the humanitarian corridor to evacuate Indian students stranded in the war zone (code named Operation Ganga). It drew praise from both Ukraine and Russia and many countries benefited like Bangladesh, Nepal, Pakistan etc. Next phase is even tougher as India has to convince both the leaders to a ceasefire.

Other factors Vladimir Putin spoke to Mr. Modi and informed him that this will be a turning point in India-Russia relation, but have opportunity to gain by siding with Russia. Zelensky called upon Modi and informed him to do the right thing by calling upon Russian counterpart to do a ceasefire. He also stressed upon India to punish Russia by joining sanctions. Joe Biden told Modi he is not happy that Modi abstained from voting on three occasions. He was hoping India would side with sanctions. Modi himself spoke to Putin and Zelensky and urged them to talk to each other. Modi also had internal pressures that he needs to control inflation and shooting up of prices and also look at long term future of the country.